Comments on: Competitive Intelligence Without Predictions is Dead http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/04/06/competitive-intelligence-without-predictions-is-dead/ Helping Smart People Think Clearly About Strategy Fri, 27 May 2011 09:41:20 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tom Hawes http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/04/06/competitive-intelligence-without-predictions-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-759 Tom Hawes Wed, 14 Apr 2010 16:26:39 +0000 http://blog.jthawes.com/?p=847#comment-759 Joy, Your comment makes sense to me. Can you give an example? Tom Joy,

Your comment makes sense to me. Can you give an example?

Tom

]]> By: Joy Levin http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/04/06/competitive-intelligence-without-predictions-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-758 Joy Levin Wed, 14 Apr 2010 15:21:44 +0000 http://blog.jthawes.com/?p=847#comment-758 To your point that "The challenge for futurists is interpreting broad trends for specific understandings leading to possible actions for near term business": one way to better inform broad demographic trends is to explore them on a finer level by understanding motivators and behaviors among the target audience groups. While this type of exploration can get expensive, it is not necessarily so, and the value of the exercise can quickly provide a measurable results and enhance the gathering of competitive intelligence. To your point that “The challenge for futurists is interpreting broad trends for specific understandings leading to possible actions for near term business”: one way to better inform broad demographic trends is to explore them on a finer level by understanding motivators and behaviors among the target audience groups. While this type of exploration can get expensive, it is not necessarily so, and the value of the exercise can quickly provide a measurable results and enhance the gathering of competitive intelligence.

]]> By: Tom Hawes http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/04/06/competitive-intelligence-without-predictions-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-752 Tom Hawes Wed, 07 Apr 2010 19:19:22 +0000 http://blog.jthawes.com/?p=847#comment-752 Mark, I wish that I had thought of the weatherman analogy. Indeed, we want their predictions even as we recall their past failures. Thanks. Tom Mark,

I wish that I had thought of the weatherman analogy. Indeed, we want their predictions even as we recall their past failures. Thanks.

Tom

]]> By: Tom Hawes http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/04/06/competitive-intelligence-without-predictions-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-751 Tom Hawes Wed, 07 Apr 2010 19:18:27 +0000 http://blog.jthawes.com/?p=847#comment-751 Ellen, Nice addition. I have had the same experience and agree that it is a sensitive request (order?). Nevertheless, I think that it can be an important discipline, especially for more senior CI professionals. It forces CI to demonstrate good awareness of the issues faced by management while proposing something that was defensible to them. Tom Ellen,

Nice addition. I have had the same experience and agree that it is a sensitive request (order?). Nevertheless, I think that it can be an important discipline, especially for more senior CI professionals. It forces CI to demonstrate good awareness of the issues faced by management while proposing something that was defensible to them.

Tom

]]> By: Ellen Naylor http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/04/06/competitive-intelligence-without-predictions-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-750 Ellen Naylor Wed, 07 Apr 2010 17:48:07 +0000 http://blog.jthawes.com/?p=847#comment-750 I would add a point #4, which I was forced to do by my management: make recommendations about what management should do. This made me uncomfortable since it was politically fraught. However, it made me more thoughtful about clearly expressing my interpretations and predictions. I made plenty of mistakes and this 4th step made me stick my neck out further that I liked as I felt that CI was more of a support role than an active one! I would add a point #4, which I was forced to do by my management: make recommendations about what management should do. This made me uncomfortable since it was politically fraught. However, it made me more thoughtful about clearly expressing my interpretations and predictions. I made plenty of mistakes and this 4th step made me stick my neck out further that I liked as I felt that CI was more of a support role than an active one!

]]> By: Mark Johnson http://blog.jthawes.com/2010/04/06/competitive-intelligence-without-predictions-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-747 Mark Johnson Wed, 07 Apr 2010 08:55:03 +0000 http://blog.jthawes.com/?p=847#comment-747 ABSOLUTELY!! The analogy of the weatherman is comparable. What use would the flashing radar with brightly colored regions be without the weatherman interpreting the lightning strikes, the sections of heavy rain, the path the storm is taking, and the likelihood of damaging conditions along the pathway? Are you in a low lying area where flooding is likely? CI requires a careful review of the evidence, the meaning of the indicators, the course of likely events, and if possible for the particular client, an interpretation of specific risk and/or alternative actions for consideration. ABSOLUTELY!!

The analogy of the weatherman is comparable. What use would the flashing radar with brightly colored regions be without the weatherman interpreting the lightning strikes, the sections of heavy rain, the path the storm is taking, and the likelihood of damaging conditions along the pathway? Are you in a low lying area where flooding is likely?

CI requires a careful review of the evidence, the meaning of the indicators, the course of likely events, and if possible for the particular client, an interpretation of specific risk and/or alternative actions for consideration.

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