There is a verse in the Christian Bible that says, “faith without works is dead.” It is talking to people that say they are Christians but show no evidence of that identity. The background of the statement is the assumption that being (or becoming) a Christian is reflected in visible changes in a person’s outlook, attitudes and actions. Orthodox Christianity does not endorse wishy-washy faith any more than it canonizes competing worldviews. (Presumably, other faiths hold similarly strong views of what is right and wrong for their adherents. )

What should be expected of an “orthodox” competitive intelligence professional? Should they be in the prediction business?

In the last month, I have had the privilege of hearing two prominent economists speak. At the recent SCIP national conference, we heard from the chief economist from Intel Corporation. Earlier in March, I met and listened to the chief economist from IBM. They talked about many of the same things. For instance, both covered the state of the economy. Both talked about global competitiveness issues. Surprisingly to me, both of them included humor in their talks that was very effective (who knew that economists could be so funny?). Still, the most fascinating statement from both men was simply this.

Do not trust my predictions.

This was from nationally known people that had made it their life’s work to forecast what was going to happen in the global economies. Their companies made crucial decisions based on currency fluctuations, growth rates in various countries, the movement of interest rates and many other issues that were their province to study, interpret and report. Why, will all of their knowledge and decades of experience did both feel compelled to say humbly that their predictive abilities were suspect?

(Note to self – using “all”, “always” and “never” guarantees that you will sometimes be wrong.)

Beware of consultants (like me) that tell you that they know what to deliver and how to deliver it to your organization. Be especially cautious when the consultant knows a lot about competitive intelligence but only a little about your situation. Maybe, after you have talked with them awhile, it is more reasonable to accept the opinions of an outsider but only after they have demonstrated knowledge about your competitive challenges.

And what are your competitive challenges? Who cares most about these challenges?

Common challenges are growing the business, reacting to a competitors’ initiatives, clarifying a product or market strategy, deciding a business strategy question and cutting costs effectively. In many organizations, strategists of one type or another are the decision-makers. They are responsible for overcoming these important challenges and, thus, are the customers of the related competitive intelligence.

Competitive intelligence has a significant role in addressing all of these challenges.

Should a company spend money on competitive intelligence?

Well, if they knew that their returns would be twice their investment, then they might quickly answer “yes.” Conversely, if the return was half the needed investment, then it is equally clear that the answer would be an emphatic “no.”

Those answers are easy when credible numbers are assigned to both the investment and return sides of the equation. However, as most experienced CI professional know, this is not a trivial matter. Although incontrovertible, quantitative evidence of impact is highly desirable, CI professionals usually have to use qualitative ROI “measurements.”

Sometimes the investment side is easy. For instance, it is often clear what a consulting engagement costs or the sum of the tools and salaries for an internal staff. However, this precision is often missing on the return side.  After all, competitive intelligence is a support function for decision-makers. Their decision-making process can be quite complicated and involve many factors beyond the direct CI input. In the end, did CI tip the scales one way or the other? Was the CI input valuable or not? How valuable? Who would know the answer to these questions?